NTM Upside (drives allocation weight)
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BUY — 6 stocks below median
Deploy: $70,705
Target = blended corridor median (90D/1Y weighted). Horizon = timeframe for that target. |
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| Ticker | Name | Price | Target | Upside | PE | Horizon | Depth (σ) | Scale % | Deploy $ | ~Shares | Budget |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | NVIDIA Corporation | $172.70 | $217 | +25.7% | 35 | ~8mo | +2.22σ | 100% | $10,773 | 62 | 15% |
| MSFT | Microsoft Corporation | $381.87 | $543 | +42.2% | 24 | ~9mo | +2.20σ | 100% | $17,721 | 46 | 25% |
| AMZN | Amazon.com, Inc. | $205.37 | $244 | +18.8% | 29 | ~8mo | +1.85σ | 96% | $7,611 | 37 | 11% |
| PLTR | Palantir Technologies | $150.68 | $236 | +56.6% | 239 | ~10mo | +1.83σ | 96% | $22,782 | 151 | 32% |
| META | Meta Platforms, Inc. | $593.66 | $707 | +19.1% | 25 | ~8mo | +1.76σ | 91% | $7,269 | 12 | 10% |
| AVGO | Broadcom Inc. | $310.51 | $375 | +20.8% | 61 | ~8mo | +1.41σ | 52% | $4,549 | 14 | 6% |
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WATCH — 4 stocks near median
Approaching buy zone
Target = blended corridor median. Entry @ = median price where depth crosses 0 (buy trigger). |
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| Ticker | Name | Price | Target | Upside | PE | Horizon | Depth (σ) | Entry @ | Support | Note | |
| GOOGL | Alphabet Inc. | $301.00 | $328 | +9.0% | 28 | ~5mo | +0.65σ | $316 | $304 | Worst ranked #12 (1Y), #5 (90D). Only 7% upside on 1Y, 30% o | |
| TSLA | Tesla, Inc. | $367.96 | $393 | +6.8% | 344 | ~9mo | +0.59σ | $404 | $280 | #9 on 1Y, #2 on 90D. -6% this week, -24% 3mo. Not adjusted f | |
| AMD | Advanced Micro Devices | $201.33 | $206 | +2.3% | 77 | ~8mo | +0.33σ | $213 | $143 | #11 (1Y), #8 (90D). +4% best performer this week. PEG 0.46, | |
| TSM | Taiwan Semiconductor M | $329.24 | $313 | -4.9% | 32 | ~8mo | +0.27σ | $340 | $249 | #10 (1Y), #8 (90D). -3% 1wk. 28% 1Y upside, 44% 90D. PEG 0.6 | |
| AVOID — 1 stocks above median Wait for pullback | |||||||||||
| Ticker | Name | Price | Target | Upside | PE | Horizon | Depth (σ) | Buy Price (median) | Note | ||
| MU | Micron Technology, Inc | $422.90 | $421 | -0.4% | 20 | ~4mo | -0.55σ | Needs -5% to reach median | Corridor method NOT suitable (depression→supercycle). 'Rerat | ||
Total portfolio: $100,000 | Cash reserve: $21,272 (21%) | Investable: $78,728
Deploy this week: $70,705 | Remaining dry powder: $8,023
Average portfolio depth: +1.1σ. Reserve elevated from 15% to 21% — crash defense active.
Build phase: ACTIVE — deploying at least 60% of each target to get positioned.
Weekly deployment cap: 20% of remaining cash — INACTIVE (activates when portfolio is 75% deployed, currently 0%).
Only stocks below their corridor median get capital. The deeper below, the more you deploy. This IS the AJ method — concentrated, opportunistic buying.
| Ticker | Price | Target | Horizon | Depth | Scale % | Deploy $ | ~Shares |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA ★ | $172.70 | $208 | ~8mo | +2.2σ | 100% | $10,773 | 62 |
| MSFT ★ | $381.87 | $500 | ~9mo | +2.2σ | 100% | $17,721 | 46 |
| AMZN ★ | $205.37 | $238 | ~8mo | +1.9σ | 96% | $7,611 | 37 |
| PLTR ★ | $150.68 | $217 | ~10mo | +1.8σ | 96% | $22,782 | 151 |
| META ★ | $593.66 | $685 | ~8mo | +1.8σ | 91% | $7,269 | 12 |
| AVGO | $310.51 | $362 | ~8mo | +1.4σ | 52% | $4,549 | 14 |
Total initial deployment: $70,705 | Remaining for scaling: $8,023
AJ: "Allocation increases significantly for every 0.1σ beyond -1.5." These are your averaging-down levels.
| If drops to | Depth | Scale % | Buy more $ | Cumulative $ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $202.83 | +2.0σ | 100% | $298 | $5,960 |
| If drops to | Depth | Scale % | Buy more $ | Cumulative $ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $144.58 | +2.0σ | 100% | $897 | $17,941 |
| If drops to | Depth | Scale % | Buy more $ | Cumulative $ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $581.00 | +2.0σ | 100% | $302 | $6,049 |
These stocks are trading above their NTM target. The model says avoid them entirely.
Each stock's target blends its 90-day and 1-year corridor medians. The weighting is set per stock based on AJ's qualitative assessment. Review weekly — if conditions change, the blend should change too.
| Ticker | 90D Wt | 1Y Wt | 90D Target | 1Y Target | Blended | Why This Weighting |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MU | 90% | 10% | $421 | $230 | $402 | Almost pure 90D (90%). AJ explicitly says the corridor method isn't suitable for MU. The 1Y data ($230 target, $195 support) reflects old depression-era pricing. Only the 90D data ($421 median) captures the supercycle reality. |
| GOOGL | 80% | 20% | $328 | $270 | $316 | Heavy 90D (80%). AJ explicitly says 90D is more representative. The 1Y corridor ($270 target, $187 support) is distorted — GOOGL at $299 is above the 1Y median, making it look overvalued on the longer view. The 90D corridor ($328) better captures current sentiment. |
| NVDA | 50% | 50% | $198 | $217 | $208 | Equal blend. 90D and 1Y corridors are closely aligned ($198 vs $217), so neither timeframe dominates. Both tell a similar story. |
| AMZN | 50% | 50% | $231 | $244 | $238 | Equal blend. Both corridors are closely aligned ($231 vs $244). AMZN's capital-intensive model means the market prices it consistently across timeframes. |
| META | 50% | 50% | $663 | $707 | $685 | Equal blend. Corridors are aligned ($663 vs $707). No strong reason to favour either timeframe — META trades consistently relative to both. |
| AVGO | 50% | 50% | $350 | $375 | $362 | Equal blend. Both corridors are closely aligned ($350 vs $375). AVGO is a steady compounder — both timeframes see roughly the same picture. |
| AAPL | 50% | 50% | $267 | $261 | $264 | Equal blend. Targets are close ($267 vs $261). AAPL is a slow-mover with limited growth — neither timeframe offers a meaningfully different view. |
| AMD | 40% | 60% | $223 | $206 | $213 | Lean 1Y (60%). The 1Y corridor ($206) is more conservative and accounts for AMD's inconsistent execution history. 90D ($223) prices in momentum. Blending toward 1Y adds a margin of safety. |
| TSM | 40% | 60% | $381 | $313 | $340 | Lean 1Y (60%). The 90D corridor ($381) reflects the AI-driven surge. The 1Y view ($313) is more realistic for a pullback scenario. Leaning 1Y prevents buying into stretched momentum. |
| MSFT | 35% | 65% | $421 | $543 | $500 | Heavy 1Y (65%). MSFT is now #1 buy on 1Y but #10 (3rd worst) on 90D. The 90D corridor has compressed dramatically ($421 median, down from $449) reflecting near-term weakness. The 1Y target ($543) captures the recovery narrative. This divergence demands leaning harder on 1Y. |
| ORCL | 35% | 65% | $165 | $216 | $198 | Heavy 1Y (65%). 90D corridor collapsed ($165 median, down from $177) — Oracle dropped hard from highs. The 1Y target ($216) captures the cloud/AI execution story over time. Shifting heavier to 1Y as 90D reflects panic. |
| TSLA | 30% | 70% | $430 | $393 | $404 | Heavy 1Y (70%). 1Y corridor shifted up ($393 median, was $370). But 90D ($430) still reflects speculative premium. AJ notes SpaceX IPO risk. Leaning 1Y is the more sober view. |
| PLTR | 25% | 75% | $161 | $236 | $217 | Heavy 1Y (75%). PLTR is #2 on 1Y but dead last (#13) on 90D. The 90D corridor has collapsed further ($161 median, down from $172) as sentiment crashed. The 1Y target ($236) captures the structural re-rating. Shifting even heavier to 1Y to avoid the 90D noise. |
| Ticker | Name | Price | Beta | 90D Tgt | 1Y Tgt | Wt 90/1Y | NTM Tgt | Upside | Cal. Up | Weight | Target $ | Shares | Value | Delta | Pos 90D | Pos 1Y | Rank | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | NVIDIA Corporation | $172.70 | 2.38 | $198 | $217 | 50/50 | $217 | +25.7% | +25.7% | 10.3% | $8,128 | 0 | $0 | +$8,128 | -0.81 | -0.34 | #1 | SCALE IN (heavy) |
| MSFT | Microsoft Corporatio | $381.87 | 1.11 | $421 | $543 | 35/65 | $543 | +42.2% | +42.2% | 17.0% | $13,370 | 0 | $0 | +$13,370 | 0.40 | -0.81 | #4 | SCALE IN (heavy) |
| AMZN | Amazon.com, Inc. | $205.37 | 1.42 | $231 | $244 | 50/50 | $244 | +18.8% | +18.8% | 7.6% | $5,960 | 0 | $0 | +$5,960 | 0.05 | -0.55 | #3 | SCALE IN (heavy) |
| PLTR | Palantir Technologie | $150.68 | 1.74 | $161 | $236 | 25/75 | $236 | +56.6% | +56.6% | 22.8% | $17,941 | 0 | $0 | +$17,941 | 0.77 | -0.47 | #6 | SCALE IN (heavy) |
| META | Meta Platforms, Inc. | $593.66 | 1.28 | $663 | $707 | 50/50 | $707 | +19.1% | +19.1% | 7.7% | $6,049 | 0 | $0 | +$6,049 | -0.65 | 0.01 | #2 | SCALE IN (heavy) |
| AVGO | Broadcom Inc. | $310.51 | 1.26 | $350 | $375 | 50/50 | $375 | +20.8% | +20.8% | 8.4% | $6,581 | 0 | $0 | +$6,581 | -0.20 | 0.17 | #5 | SCALE IN |
| ORCL | Oracle Corporation | $149.68 | 1.65 | $165 | $216 | 35/65 | $216 | +44.3% | +44.3% | 17.8% | $14,039 | 0 | $0 | +$14,039 | 0.57 | 0.22 | #9 | ON TARGET |
| AAPL | Apple Inc. | $247.99 | 1.12 | $267 | $261 | 50/50 | $261 | +5.2% | +5.2% | 2.1% | $1,662 | 0 | $0 | +$1,662 | -0.27 | 0.59 | #7 | ON TARGET |
| GOOGL | Alphabet Inc. | $301.00 | 1.11 | $328 | $270 | 80/20 | $328 | +9.0% | +9.0% | 3.6% | $2,842 | 0 | $0 | +$2,842 | -0.12 | 1.37 | #10 | ON TARGET |
| TSLA | Tesla, Inc. | $367.96 | 1.93 | $430 | $393 | 30/70 | $393 | +6.8% | +6.8% | 2.7% | $2,156 | 0 | $0 | +$2,156 | -0.44 | 0.78 | #8 | ON TARGET |
| AMD | Advanced Micro Devic | $201.33 | 2.02 | $223 | $206 | 40/60 | $206 | +2.3% | +2.3% | 0.0% | $0 | 0 | $0 | $0 | 0.38 | 0.93 | #11 | ON TARGET |
| TSM | Taiwan Semiconductor | $329.24 | 1.28 | $381 | $313 | 40/60 | $313 | -4.9% | -4.9% | 0.0% | $0 | 0 | $0 | $0 | 0.09 | 1.25 | #12 | ON TARGET |
| MU | Micron Technology, I | $422.90 | 1.54 | $421 | $230 | 90/10 | $421 | -0.4% | -0.4% | 0.0% | $0 | 0 | $0 | $0 | 1.03 | 6.51 | #13 | ON TARGET |
Allocation Engine (what % of portfolio each stock deserves):
NTM Upside = (NTM Target - Price) / Price → normalized to target weights.
This determines the "full target" for each stock. Recalculated live as prices move.
Depth (σ) = (Target - Price) / σ where σ = (Target - Support) / 1.5
Positive depth = below median (buy zone). Negative = above median (sell zone).
Scaling Engine (how much of the target to deploy NOW):
Buy little within 1.5σ. Below -1.5σ support, allocation increases ~15% per 0.1σ.
This is AJ's key insight: you don't buy the full target at once. You scale in gradually, going heavier as the stock drops further into outlier territory.
Capital Shifts: When one stock is a deep outlier, shift capital FROM overweight positions INTO the outlier. It's about relative attractiveness, not absolute quality. A mediocre company at a deep discount can be a better buy than a great company priced to perfection.
Unwinding: Mirror of entry. Sell slowly as price rises above median, accelerating as it moves further above target.