NTM Upside (drives allocation weight)
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BUY — 8 stocks below median
Deploy: $-239,391
Target = blended corridor median (90D/1Y weighted). Horizon = timeframe for that target. |
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| Ticker | Name | Price | Target | Upside | PE | Horizon | Depth (σ) | Scale % | Deploy $ | ~Shares | Budget |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| META | Meta Platforms, Inc. | $525.72 | $707 | +34.5% | 22 | ~8mo | +3.06σ | 100% | $-62,851 | -119 | 0% |
| MSFT | Microsoft Corporation | $356.77 | $543 | +52.2% | 22 | ~9mo | +2.67σ | 100% | $-10,660 | -29 | 0% |
| NVDA | NVIDIA Corporation | $167.52 | $217 | +29.5% | 34 | ~8mo | +2.55σ | 100% | $-0 | 0 | 0% |
| AMZN | Amazon.com, Inc. | $199.34 | $244 | +22.4% | 28 | ~8mo | +2.20σ | 100% | $-0 | 0 | 0% |
| PLTR | Palantir Technologies | $143.06 | $236 | +65.0% | 227 | ~10mo | +2.04σ | 100% | $-70,309 | -491 | 0% |
| GOOGL | Alphabet Inc. | $274.34 | $328 | +19.6% | 25 | ~5mo | +1.76σ | 91% | $-0 | 0 | 0% |
| AVGO | Broadcom Inc. | $300.68 | $375 | +24.7% | 58 | ~8mo | +1.67σ | 81% | $-73,483 | -244 | 0% |
| ORCL | Oracle Corporation | $139.66 | $216 | +54.7% | 25 | ~9mo | +1.29σ | 49% | $-22,088 | -158 | 0% |
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WATCH — 4 stocks near median
Approaching buy zone
Target = blended corridor median. Entry @ = median price where depth crosses 0 (buy trigger). |
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| Ticker | Name | Price | Target | Upside | PE | Horizon | Depth (σ) | Entry @ | Support | Note | |
| AAPL | Apple Inc. | $248.80 | $261 | +4.9% | 32 | ~8mo | +0.97σ | $264 | $252 | #7 on 1Y, #6 on 90D. PEG 1.74 — 2nd most expensive. Only 22% | |
| TSLA | Tesla, Inc. | $361.83 | $393 | +8.6% | 332 | ~9mo | +0.69σ | $404 | $280 | #9 on 1Y, #2 on 90D. -6% this week, -24% 3mo. Not adjusted f | |
| TSM | Taiwan Semiconductor M | $326.74 | $313 | -4.2% | 32 | ~8mo | +0.33σ | $340 | $249 | #10 (1Y), #8 (90D). -3% 1wk. 28% 1Y upside, 44% 90D. PEG 0.6 | |
| AMD | Advanced Micro Devices | $201.99 | $206 | +2.0% | 77 | ~8mo | +0.31σ | $213 | $143 | #11 (1Y), #8 (90D). +4% best performer this week. PEG 0.46, | |
Total portfolio: $9,000,000 | Cash reserve: $2,334,716 (26%) | Investable: $6,665,284
Deploy this week: $-239,391 (weekly cap applied) | Remaining dry powder: $6,904,675
Average portfolio depth: +1.6σ. Reserve elevated from 15% to 26% — crash defense active.
Build phase: COMPLETE — scaling engine in full control.
Weekly deployment cap: 20% of remaining cash — ACTIVE.
AJ Rule 3: "Unwind the same way but in reverse — sell slowly (in case it pulls back for more averaging down). As it keeps rising, sell more."
| Ticker | Price | Depth | Current | Scale Target | Trim Now $ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TSLA | $361.83 | +0.7σ | $1,129,995 | $53,537 | $1,076,458 |
| AAPL | $248.80 | +1.0σ | $746 | $0 | $746 |
| MU | $357.22 | +1.2σ | $639,067 | $162,657 | $476,410 |
| GOOGL | $274.34 | +1.8σ | $474,608 | $361,513 | $113,095 |
| AMZN | $199.34 | +2.2σ | $1,187,070 | $453,893 | $733,177 |
| NVDA | $167.52 | +2.6σ | $1,729,644 | $598,401 | $1,131,243 |
Mirror of buy tranches. Sell a little as price rises above median, sell more as it keeps going. Each level reduces your position further.
| If rises to | Depth | Hold % | Sell $ | Total trimmed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $496.10 | -1.5σ | 0% | $1,129,995 | $1,129,995 |
| If rises to | Depth | Hold % | Sell $ | Total trimmed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $287.50 | -1.5σ | 0% | $746 | $746 |
| If rises to | Depth | Hold % | Sell $ | Total trimmed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $459.40 | -1.5σ | 0% | $639,067 | $639,067 |
| If rises to | Depth | Hold % | Sell $ | Total trimmed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $352.20 | -1.5σ | 0% | $474,608 | $474,608 |
| If rises to | Depth | Hold % | Sell $ | Total trimmed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $263.50 | -1.5σ | 0% | $1,187,070 | $1,187,070 |
Capital freed from scale-out positions feeds into outlier opportunities.
These stocks are trading above their NTM target. The model says avoid them entirely.
Each stock's target blends its 90-day and 1-year corridor medians. The weighting is set per stock based on AJ's qualitative assessment. Review weekly — if conditions change, the blend should change too.
| Ticker | 90D Wt | 1Y Wt | 90D Target | 1Y Target | Blended | Why This Weighting |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MU | 90% | 10% | $421 | $230 | $402 | Almost pure 90D (90%). AJ explicitly says the corridor method isn't suitable for MU. The 1Y data ($230 target, $195 support) reflects old depression-era pricing. Only the 90D data ($421 median) captures the supercycle reality. |
| GOOGL | 80% | 20% | $328 | $270 | $316 | Heavy 90D (80%). AJ explicitly says 90D is more representative. The 1Y corridor ($270 target, $187 support) is distorted — GOOGL at $299 is above the 1Y median, making it look overvalued on the longer view. The 90D corridor ($328) better captures current sentiment. |
| META | 50% | 50% | $663 | $707 | $685 | Equal blend. Corridors are aligned ($663 vs $707). No strong reason to favour either timeframe — META trades consistently relative to both. |
| NVDA | 50% | 50% | $198 | $217 | $208 | Equal blend. 90D and 1Y corridors are closely aligned ($198 vs $217), so neither timeframe dominates. Both tell a similar story. |
| AMZN | 50% | 50% | $231 | $244 | $238 | Equal blend. Both corridors are closely aligned ($231 vs $244). AMZN's capital-intensive model means the market prices it consistently across timeframes. |
| AVGO | 50% | 50% | $350 | $375 | $362 | Equal blend. Both corridors are closely aligned ($350 vs $375). AVGO is a steady compounder — both timeframes see roughly the same picture. |
| AAPL | 50% | 50% | $267 | $261 | $264 | Equal blend. Targets are close ($267 vs $261). AAPL is a slow-mover with limited growth — neither timeframe offers a meaningfully different view. |
| TSM | 40% | 60% | $381 | $313 | $340 | Lean 1Y (60%). The 90D corridor ($381) reflects the AI-driven surge. The 1Y view ($313) is more realistic for a pullback scenario. Leaning 1Y prevents buying into stretched momentum. |
| AMD | 40% | 60% | $223 | $206 | $213 | Lean 1Y (60%). The 1Y corridor ($206) is more conservative and accounts for AMD's inconsistent execution history. 90D ($223) prices in momentum. Blending toward 1Y adds a margin of safety. |
| MSFT | 35% | 65% | $421 | $543 | $500 | Heavy 1Y (65%). MSFT is now #1 buy on 1Y but #10 (3rd worst) on 90D. The 90D corridor has compressed dramatically ($421 median, down from $449) reflecting near-term weakness. The 1Y target ($543) captures the recovery narrative. This divergence demands leaning harder on 1Y. |
| ORCL | 35% | 65% | $165 | $216 | $198 | Heavy 1Y (65%). 90D corridor collapsed ($165 median, down from $177) — Oracle dropped hard from highs. The 1Y target ($216) captures the cloud/AI execution story over time. Shifting heavier to 1Y as 90D reflects panic. |
| TSLA | 30% | 70% | $430 | $393 | $404 | Heavy 1Y (70%). 1Y corridor shifted up ($393 median, was $370). But 90D ($430) still reflects speculative premium. AJ notes SpaceX IPO risk. Leaning 1Y is the more sober view. |
| PLTR | 25% | 75% | $161 | $236 | $217 | Heavy 1Y (75%). PLTR is #2 on 1Y but dead last (#13) on 90D. The 90D corridor has collapsed further ($161 median, down from $172) as sentiment crashed. The 1Y target ($236) captures the structural re-rating. Shifting even heavier to 1Y to avoid the 90D noise. |
| Ticker | Name | Price | Beta | 90D Tgt | 1Y Tgt | Wt 90/1Y | NTM Tgt | Upside | Cal. Up | Weight | Target $ | Shares | Value | Delta | Pos 90D | Pos 1Y | Rank | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| META | Meta Platforms, Inc. | $525.72 | 1.28 | $663 | $707 | 50/50 | $707 | +34.5% | +34.5% | 10.5% | $698,594 | 672 | $353,284 | +$345,310 | -2.27 | -0.59 | #1 | ON TARGET |
| MSFT | Microsoft Corporatio | $356.77 | 1.11 | $421 | $543 | 35/65 | $543 | +52.2% | +52.2% | 15.9% | $1,057,525 | 2800 | $998,956 | +$58,569 | 0.01 | -1.09 | #3 | ON TARGET |
| NVDA | NVIDIA Corporation | $167.52 | 2.38 | $198 | $217 | 50/50 | $217 | +29.5% | +29.5% | 9.0% | $598,401 | 10325 | $1,729,644 | $-1,131,243 | -1.18 | -0.50 | #2 | SCALE OUT (light) |
| AMZN | Amazon.com, Inc. | $199.34 | 1.42 | $231 | $244 | 50/50 | $244 | +22.4% | +22.4% | 6.8% | $453,893 | 5955 | $1,187,070 | $-733,177 | -0.17 | -0.79 | #4 | SCALE OUT (light) |
| PLTR | Palantir Technologie | $143.06 | 1.74 | $161 | $236 | 25/75 | $236 | +65.0% | +65.0% | 19.7% | $1,316,176 | 6500 | $929,890 | +$386,286 | 0.59 | -0.60 | #7 | ON TARGET |
| GOOGL | Alphabet Inc. | $274.34 | 1.11 | $328 | $270 | 80/20 | $328 | +19.6% | +19.6% | 5.9% | $396,270 | 1730 | $474,608 | $-78,338 | -1.24 | 1.05 | #6 | SCALE OUT (light) |
| AVGO | Broadcom Inc. | $300.68 | 1.26 | $350 | $375 | 50/50 | $375 | +24.7% | +24.7% | 7.5% | $500,761 | 0 | $0 | +$500,761 | -0.49 | 0.05 | #5 | ON TARGET |
| ORCL | Oracle Corporation | $139.66 | 1.65 | $165 | $216 | 35/65 | $216 | +54.7% | +54.7% | 16.6% | $1,107,413 | 3000 | $418,980 | +$688,433 | 0.30 | 0.10 | #9 | ON TARGET |
| MU | Micron Technology, I | $357.22 | 1.54 | $421 | $230 | 90/10 | $421 | +17.9% | +17.9% | 5.4% | $361,725 | 1789 | $639,067 | $-277,342 | -0.06 | 4.63 | #13 | SCALE OUT (light) |
| AAPL | Apple Inc. | $248.80 | 1.12 | $267 | $261 | 50/50 | $261 | +4.9% | +4.9% | 0.0% | $0 | 3 | $746 | $-746 | -0.21 | 0.62 | #10 | SCALE OUT (light) |
| TSLA | Tesla, Inc. | $361.83 | 1.93 | $430 | $393 | 30/70 | $393 | +8.6% | +8.6% | 2.6% | $174,527 | 3123 | $1,129,995 | $-955,468 | -0.59 | 0.72 | #8 | SCALE OUT (light) |
| TSM | Taiwan Semiconductor | $326.74 | 1.28 | $381 | $313 | 40/60 | $313 | -4.2% | -4.2% | 0.0% | $0 | 0 | $0 | $0 | 0.05 | 1.21 | #11 | ON TARGET |
| AMD | Advanced Micro Devic | $201.99 | 2.02 | $223 | $206 | 40/60 | $206 | +2.0% | +2.0% | 0.0% | $0 | 0 | $0 | $0 | 0.40 | 0.94 | #12 | ON TARGET |
Allocation Engine (what % of portfolio each stock deserves):
NTM Upside = (NTM Target - Price) / Price → normalized to target weights.
This determines the "full target" for each stock. Recalculated live as prices move.
Depth (σ) = (Target - Price) / σ where σ = (Target - Support) / 1.5
Positive depth = below median (buy zone). Negative = above median (sell zone).
Scaling Engine (how much of the target to deploy NOW):
Buy little within 1.5σ. Below -1.5σ support, allocation increases ~15% per 0.1σ.
This is AJ's key insight: you don't buy the full target at once. You scale in gradually, going heavier as the stock drops further into outlier territory.
Capital Shifts: When one stock is a deep outlier, shift capital FROM overweight positions INTO the outlier. It's about relative attractiveness, not absolute quality. A mediocre company at a deep discount can be a better buy than a great company priced to perfection.
Unwinding: Mirror of entry. Sell slowly as price rises above median, accelerating as it moves further above target.