(Upside / Beta) × Multiplier
|
BUY — 5 stocks below median
Deploy: $70,883
Target = blended corridor median (90D/1Y weighted). Horizon = timeframe for that target. |
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| Ticker | Name | Price | Target | Upside | PE | Horizon | Depth (σ) | Scale % | Deploy $ | ~Shares | Budget |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSFT | Microsoft Corporation | $395.55 | $504 | +27.5% | 25 | ~8mo | +2.12σ | 100% | $24,696 | 62 | 35% |
| AMZN | Amazon.com, Inc. | $207.67 | $240 | +15.6% | 29 | ~8mo | +1.94σ | 98% | $10,318 | 49 | 15% |
| PLTR | Palantir Technologies | $150.95 | $215 | +42.2% | 240 | ~9mo | +1.80σ | 95% | $24,752 | 163 | 35% |
| NVDA | NVIDIA Corporation | $180.25 | $206 | +14.6% | 37 | ~8mo | +1.79σ | 94% | $5,861 | 32 | 8% |
| META | Meta Platforms, Inc. | $613.71 | $689 | +12.3% | 26 | ~8mo | +1.52σ | 57% | $5,256 | 8 | 7% |
|
WATCH — 5 stocks near median
Approaching buy zone
Target = blended corridor median. Entry @ = median price where depth crosses 0 (buy trigger). |
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| Ticker | Name | Price | Target | Upside | PE | Horizon | Depth (σ) | Entry @ | Support | Note | |
| AAPL | Apple Inc. | $250.12 | $264 | +5.7% | 32 | ~8mo | +0.90σ | $264 | $253 | Growth limited but premium from iPhone real estate. PEG 1.92 | |
| GOOGL | Alphabet Inc. | $302.28 | $315 | +4.2% | 28 | ~5mo | +0.56σ | $315 | $305 | Least attractive on 1Y (4 wks running) after major 2025 rall | |
| AMD | Advanced Micro Devices | $193.39 | $212 | +9.6% | 74 | ~8mo | +0.55σ | $212 | $141 | 3rd most upside long-term. CEO track record inconsistent. OR | |
| TSLA | Tesla, Inc. | $391.20 | $390 | -0.3% | 356 | ~9mo | -0.02σ | $390 | $254 | 2nd least attractive (1Y). Not adjusted for SpaceX IPO. Q4 2 | |
| TSM | Taiwan Semiconductor M | $338.31 | $325 | -3.8% | 33 | ~8mo | -0.38σ | $325 | $245 | 3rd least attractive on both 1Y and 90D. Overheated per AJ. | |
| AVOID — 1 stocks above median Wait for pullback | |||||||||||
| Ticker | Name | Price | Target | Upside | PE | Horizon | Depth (σ) | Buy Price (median) | Note | ||
| MU | Micron Technology, Inc | $426.13 | $379 | -11.1% | 40 | ~4mo | -0.81σ | Needs -11% to reach median | Corridor method NOT suitable (depression→supercycle). Flagge | ||
Total portfolio: $100,000 | Cash reserve: $19,648 (20%) | Investable: $80,352
Deploy this week: $70,883 | Remaining dry powder: $9,469
Average portfolio depth: +0.9σ. Reserve elevated from 15% to 20% — crash defense active.
Build phase: ACTIVE — deploying at least 60% of each target to get positioned.
Weekly deployment cap: 20% of remaining cash — INACTIVE (activates when portfolio is 75% deployed, currently 0%).
Only stocks below their corridor median get capital. The deeper below, the more you deploy. This IS the AJ method — concentrated, opportunistic buying.
| Ticker | Price | Target | Horizon | Depth | Scale % | Deploy $ | ~Shares |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSFT ★ | $395.55 | $504 | ~8mo | +2.1σ | 100% | $24,696 | 62 |
| AMZN ★ | $207.67 | $240 | ~8mo | +1.9σ | 98% | $10,318 | 49 |
| PLTR ★ | $150.95 | $215 | ~9mo | +1.8σ | 95% | $24,752 | 163 |
| NVDA ★ | $180.25 | $206 | ~8mo | +1.8σ | 94% | $5,861 | 32 |
| META ★ | $613.71 | $689 | ~8mo | +1.5σ | 57% | $5,256 | 8 |
Total initial deployment: $70,883 | Remaining for scaling: $9,469
AJ: "Allocation increases significantly for every 0.1σ beyond -1.5." These are your averaging-down levels.
| If drops to | Depth | Scale % | Buy more $ | Cumulative $ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $144.03 | +2.0σ | 100% | $942 | $18,837 |
| If drops to | Depth | Scale % | Buy more $ | Cumulative $ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $177.17 | +2.0σ | 100% | $226 | $4,514 |
| If drops to | Depth | Scale % | Buy more $ | Cumulative $ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $604.57 | +1.7σ | 85% | $994 | $5,634 |
| $599.60 | +1.8σ | 95% | $663 | $6,297 |
| $589.67 | +2.0σ | 100% | $331 | $6,628 |
These stocks have negative risk-adjusted upside. The model says avoid them entirely.
Each stock's target blends its 90-day and 1-year corridor medians. The weighting is set per stock based on AJ's qualitative assessment. Review weekly — if conditions change, the blend should change too.
| Ticker | 90D Wt | 1Y Wt | 90D Target | 1Y Target | Blended | Why This Weighting |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MU | 90% | 10% | $397 | $216 | $379 | Almost pure 90D (90%). AJ explicitly says the corridor method isn't suitable for MU. The 1Y data ($216 target, $88 support) reflects old depression-era pricing. Only the 90D data ($397 median) captures the supercycle reality. Multiplier reduced via LLM consensus to reflect model uncertainty. |
| GOOGL | 80% | 20% | $327 | $267 | $315 | Heavy 90D (80%). AJ explicitly says 90D is more representative. The 1Y corridor ($267 target, $184 support) is distorted — GOOGL at $301 is above the 1Y median, making it look overvalued on the longer view. The 90D corridor ($327) better captures current sentiment. |
| AMZN | 50% | 50% | $237 | $243 | $240 | Equal blend. Both corridors are closely aligned ($237 vs $243). AMZN's capital-intensive model means the market prices it consistently across timeframes. |
| NVDA | 50% | 50% | $197 | $216 | $206 | Equal blend. 90D and 1Y corridors are closely aligned ($197 vs $216), so neither timeframe dominates. Both tell a similar story. |
| META | 50% | 50% | $671 | $707 | $689 | Equal blend. Corridors are aligned ($671 vs $707). No strong reason to favour either timeframe — META trades consistently relative to both. |
| AVGO | 50% | 50% | $350 | $372 | $361 | Equal blend. Both corridors are closely aligned ($350 vs $372). AVGO is a steady compounder — both timeframes see roughly the same picture. |
| AAPL | 50% | 50% | $268 | $261 | $264 | Equal blend. Targets are close ($268 vs $261). AAPL is a slow-mover with limited growth — neither timeframe offers a meaningfully different view. |
| MSFT | 40% | 60% | $449 | $541 | $504 | Lean 1Y (60%). The 1Y target ($541) captures the fuller recovery narrative. 90D compressed from selloff ($449 median, down from $471). The longer view better reflects MSFT's earnings trajectory. |
| ORCL | 40% | 60% | $177 | $215 | $200 | Lean 1Y (60%). The market has priced out strong guidance in 90D ($177). The 1Y target ($215) captures remaining upside if Oracle continues to deliver on cloud/AI. Leaning 1Y gives credit for execution over time. |
| AMD | 40% | 60% | $224 | $204 | $212 | Lean 1Y (60%). The 1Y corridor ($204) is more conservative and accounts for AMD's inconsistent execution history. 90D ($224) prices in aggressive guidance that may not fully materialise. Blending toward 1Y adds a margin of safety. |
| TSM | 40% | 60% | $350 | $309 | $325 | Lean 1Y (60%). AJ flagged TSM as overheated. The 90D corridor ($350) reflects the AI-driven surge. The 1Y view ($309) is more realistic for a post-pullback scenario. Leaning 1Y prevents buying into stretched momentum. |
| PLTR | 30% | 70% | $172 | $233 | $215 | Heavy 1Y (70%). AJ's #1 pick on 1Y. The 90D corridor has collapsed ($172 median, down from $184) as sentiment dropped sharply despite strong fundamentals. The 1Y target ($233) better reflects the structural re-rating. This divergence shows how sentiment-driven the 90D is. |
| TSLA | 30% | 70% | $437 | $370 | $390 | Heavy 1Y (70%). 1Y corridor shifted up significantly after Q4 earnings update ($370 median, was $335). But 90D ($437) still reflects speculative premium. AJ notes TSLA is 2nd least attractive on 1Y. Leaning 1Y is the more sober view. |
Conviction multipliers recommended by four LLMs. Values >1.0 = overweight conviction, <1.0 = underweight. The average is used as the active multiplier in all portfolio calculations.
| Ticker | Gemini | Grok | ChatGPT | Claude | Active (Avg) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSFT | 1.10 | 1.30 | 1.20 | 1.10 | 1.18 |
| AMZN | 1.00 | 1.30 | 1.20 | 1.00 | 1.12 |
| PLTR | 1.20 | 1.40 | 1.35 | 1.10 | 1.26 |
| NVDA | 1.00 | 1.50 | 1.30 | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| META | 1.00 | 1.35 | 1.15 | 1.00 | 1.12 |
| AVGO | 0.90 | 1.00 | 1.25 | 1.00 | 1.04 |
| ORCL | 1.00 | 1.10 | 1.15 | 0.90 | 1.04 |
| AAPL | 0.90 | 0.75 | 0.75 | 0.90 | 0.82 |
| GOOGL | 0.90 | 1.25 | 0.85 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| AMD | 0.80 | 1.00 | 1.10 | 0.85 | 0.94 |
| TSLA | 0.70 | 0.40 | 0.60 | 0.70 | 0.60 |
| TSM | 0.80 | 0.50 | 0.80 | 0.80 | 0.73 |
| MU | 0.50 | 0.70 | 0.50 | 0.60 | 0.57 |
| Ticker | Name | Price | Beta | 90D Tgt | 1Y Tgt | Wt 90/1Y | NTM Tgt | Upside | Mult | Cal. Up | Weight | Target $ | Shares | Value | Delta | Pos 90D | Pos 1Y | Rank | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSFT | Microsoft Corporatio | $395.55 | 1.11 | $449 | $541 | 40/60 | $504 | +27.5% | 1.2 | +29.1% | 22.2% | $17,874 | 0 | $0 | +$17,874 | 0.18 | -0.71 | #2 | SCALE IN (heavy) |
| AMZN | Amazon.com, Inc. | $207.67 | 1.42 | $237 | $243 | 50/50 | $240 | +15.6% | 1.1 | +12.3% | 9.4% | $7,582 | 0 | $0 | +$7,582 | -0.13 | -0.47 | #1 | SCALE IN (heavy) |
| PLTR | Palantir Technologie | $150.95 | 1.74 | $172 | $233 | 30/70 | $215 | +42.2% | 1.3 | +30.6% | 23.4% | $18,837 | 0 | $0 | +$18,837 | 0.54 | -0.47 | #5 | SCALE IN (heavy) |
| NVDA | NVIDIA Corporation | $180.25 | 2.38 | $197 | $216 | 50/50 | $206 | +14.6% | 1.2 | +7.3% | 5.6% | $4,514 | 0 | $0 | +$4,514 | -0.40 | -0.12 | #3 | SCALE IN (heavy) |
| META | Meta Platforms, Inc. | $613.71 | 1.28 | $671 | $707 | 50/50 | $689 | +12.3% | 1.1 | +10.8% | 8.2% | $6,628 | 0 | $0 | +$6,628 | -0.55 | 0.17 | #4 | SCALE IN (heavy) |
| AVGO | Broadcom Inc. | $322.16 | 1.26 | $350 | $372 | 50/50 | $361 | +12.1% | 1.0 | +9.9% | 7.6% | $6,102 | 0 | $0 | +$6,102 | 0.10 | 0.35 | #6 | ON TARGET |
| ORCL | Oracle Corporation | $155.11 | 1.65 | $177 | $215 | 40/60 | $200 | +28.8% | 1.0 | +18.1% | 13.9% | $11,137 | 0 | $0 | +$11,137 | 0.39 | 0.29 | #8 | ON TARGET |
| AAPL | Apple Inc. | $250.12 | 1.12 | $268 | $261 | 50/50 | $264 | +5.7% | 0.8 | +4.2% | 3.2% | $2,603 | 0 | $0 | +$2,603 | -0.19 | 0.67 | #7 | ON TARGET |
| GOOGL | Alphabet Inc. | $302.28 | 1.11 | $327 | $267 | 80/20 | $315 | +4.2% | 1.0 | +3.8% | 2.9% | $2,330 | 0 | $0 | +$2,330 | -0.12 | 1.43 | #11 | ON TARGET |
| AMD | Advanced Micro Devic | $193.39 | 2.02 | $224 | $204 | 40/60 | $212 | +9.6% | 0.9 | +4.5% | 3.4% | $2,745 | 0 | $0 | +$2,745 | 0.04 | 0.83 | #9 | ON TARGET |
| TSLA | Tesla, Inc. | $391.20 | 1.93 | $437 | $370 | 30/70 | $390 | -0.3% | 0.6 | -0.1% | 0.0% | $0 | 0 | $0 | $0 | -0.09 | 1.18 | #10 | ON TARGET |
| TSM | Taiwan Semiconductor | $338.31 | 1.28 | $350 | $309 | 40/60 | $325 | -3.8% | 0.7 | -2.2% | 0.0% | $0 | 0 | $0 | $0 | 0.65 | 1.46 | #12 | ON TARGET |
| MU | Micron Technology, I | $426.13 | 1.54 | $397 | $216 | 90/10 | $379 | -11.1% | 0.6 | -4.1% | 0.0% | $0 | 0 | $0 | $0 | 1.35 | 2.64 | #13 | ON TARGET |
Allocation Engine (what % of portfolio each stock deserves):
Calibrated Upside = (Upside% / Beta) × Multiplier → normalized to target weights.
This determines the "full target" for each stock. Recalculated live as prices move.
Depth (σ) = (Target - Price) / σ where σ = (Target - Support) / 1.5
Positive depth = below median (buy zone). Negative = above median (sell zone).
Scaling Engine (how much of the target to deploy NOW):
Buy little within 1.5σ. Below -1.5σ support, allocation increases ~15% per 0.1σ.
This is AJ's key insight: you don't buy the full target at once. You scale in gradually, going heavier as the stock drops further into outlier territory.
Capital Shifts: When one stock is a deep outlier, shift capital FROM overweight positions INTO the outlier. It's about relative attractiveness, not absolute quality. A mediocre company at a deep discount can be a better buy than a great company priced to perfection.
Unwinding: Mirror of entry. Sell slowly as price rises above median, accelerating as it moves further above target.